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Business Essentials for Executives

Module 3 • AI Exercise 1

Using AI to Decode Revenue & Costs

Treat the model as an analytical partner — not a substitute for your own judgment. The quality of your prompt shapes the quality of the thinking you get back.

AI Activity · 25 min
Format Interactive exercise
Tool required Any AI assistant
Builds on Lessons 1–4
Best completed In one sitting

Activity Introduction

The Objective

In this exercise, you will use an AI assistant as an analytical partner — not a substitute for your own judgment — to read a simplified income statement and ascertain the forces driving revenue and costs.

Your goal is to turn a static set of numbers into a dynamic story about volume, pricing power, cost structure, and fragility. The quality of your AI prompts will largely determine the quality of the analysis you get back.

Choose a Company

Pick One Income Statement to Work With

You will choose one fictional company and stick with it for the entire exercise. Each is deliberately simplified so you can focus on patterns rather than technical detail.

Horizon Fitness Equipment · $ in millions FY 2022 FY 2023
Revenue820910
Cost of Goods Sold(533)(618)
Gross Profit287292
Gross Margin35.0%32.1%
SG&A(154)(183)
R&D(26)(24)
Depreciation & Amortization(18)(20)
Operating Income (EBIT)8965
Interest Expense(11)(19)
Income Tax Expense(18)(10)
Net Income6036
Vista Cloud Services · $ in millions FY 2022 FY 2023
Revenue410560
Cost of Goods Sold(118)(159)
Gross Profit292401
Gross Margin71.2%71.6%
SG&A(182)(247)
R&D(56)(67)
Depreciation & Amortization(12)(18)
Operating Income (EBIT)4269
Interest Expense(4)(7)
Income Tax Expense(8)(13)
Net Income3049
Meridian Grocery Markets · $ in millions FY 2022 FY 2023
Revenue2,1502,340
Cost of Goods Sold(1,666)(1,875)
Gross Profit484465
Gross Margin22.5%19.9%
SG&A(332)(349)
R&D(4)(4)
Depreciation & Amortization(28)(30)
Operating Income (EBIT)12082
Interest Expense(22)(26)
Income Tax Expense(21)(12)
Net Income7744

The Workflow

Four Steps to Better AI Analysis

You will draft a prompt, compare it to a benchmark, refine it, and evaluate what you learned. Each step builds on the last — and the comparisons matter more than the answers.

01 Draft

The Initial Prompt

Open your AI assistant in a separate window. Without looking at any sample language yet, write your own prompt asking it to analyze the company you chose. Your prompt should ask the AI to:

  • Summarize what the numbers imply about revenue, volume, and price.
  • Describe what the statement suggests about cost structure and fragility.
  • Highlight at least three critical questions an executive should ask before trusting these results.

Paste your prompt and the AI’s response into the fields below. You will use them in later steps.

02 Compare

The Benchmark

Now compare your prompt to the example below. You are not trying to copy it — you are identifying the constraints and context the sample includes that your version did not, and vice versa.

Reveal Show sample prompt
You are an analytical partner for an executive reading an income statement.

I will give you a simplified two-year income statement for a single company.
Your task is to:

1. Describe what is happening to revenue in terms of both price and quantity.
   Use the framework from Ray Dalio's "Revenue: Price × Quantity" lesson:
   income levels, credit availability, the economic cycle, and substitutes.

2. Describe what the income statement suggests about this company's cost
   structure:
   - Which costs appear more fixed versus variable?
   - Where do you see operating leverage helping or hurting?
   - How fragile or resilient does this cost structure appear under a 20%
     revenue decline?

3. List at least five specific, forward-looking questions an executive
   should ask before relying on this income statement:
   - Questions about demand and pricing power
   - Questions about cost flexibility and operating leverage
   - Questions about revenue recognition timing (to be explored in Lesson 6)

Be explicit about what you can infer from the numbers and what would
require more information. Ask clarifying questions where appropriate.

Here is the company:

[PASTE COMPANY INCOME STATEMENT HERE]
03 Refine

The Refinement

Rewrite your prompt using any elements from the benchmark that make sense to you — especially instructions that force the AI to tie revenue to price and quantity, or costs to fixed versus variable structures. Run the revised prompt with the same company.

Paste the revised prompt and the new AI response below.

04 Evaluate

The Evaluation

The goal is not to decide which answer sounds smarter, but which output shows genuine understanding of the business behind the numbers. Work through each question below as you compare the two versions of the AI output.

Where did the AI clearly connect revenue to price, quantity, and demand drivers?
Where did it miss obvious questions about operating leverage or cost flexibility?
Where did your prompts encourage shallow pattern-matching instead of deep analysis?
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